Prediction for Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Dinamo Zagreb, European Europa League, 02 Oct 2025
In a crucial Europa League clash at a neutral Serbian venue, Maccabi Tel Aviv's formidable defensive resilience, boasting a six-match unbeaten streak, squares off against Dinamo Zagreb's blistering form with eight wins in ten games. With key Zagreb players missing and no true home advantage for either side, the value proposition becomes the central question: does the market correctly favor the in-form Croats, or is the undervalued Israeli side poised to continue their impressive run and upset the odds?
Based on my analysis of this Europa League clash between Maccabi Tel Aviv and Dinamo Zagreb, I believe the underdog Maccabi Tel Aviv has a compelling chance to win or at least secure a positive result in this neutral venue match in Serbia. While Dinamo Zagreb arrives with impressive form, having won 8 of their 10 matches this season including a dominant 3-1 victory over Fenerbahce, several factors lead me to believe Maccabi Tel Aviv is being undervalued in the market.
First, I'm impressed by Maccabi's defensive solidity. They've maintained an unbeaten streak of six matches across all competitions since late August, with four victories during this period. Their Europa League opener resulted in a credible 0-0 draw away at PAOK Salonika - a difficult venue against quality opposition. Following that, they recorded another 0-0 draw against Sakhnin in domestic play, demonstrating organizational discipline that could frustrate Zagreb's attackers.
When I examine the squad situations, Maccabi appears to have better availability. They'll be missing only Ion Nicolaescu, who wasn't registered for the competition anyway. Their key attacking threats - Peretz (5 league goals), Ido Shahar (3 goals, 1 assist), and Sagiv Jehezkel (1 goal, 3 assists) - are all available and in rhythm. Meanwhile, Dinamo Zagreb faces significant absences: new signing Ismail Bennacer isn't registered, Ronael Pierre-Gabriel is also ineligible, and defender Raul Torrente is injured. While Dion Beljo has been impressive with 4 goals including a brace against Fenerbahce, he'll face a well-organized Maccabi defense.
The neutral venue aspect cannot be overlooked. Playing in Serbia eliminates any home advantage for either team, creating a more level playing field than my opinion suggests. Maccabi has experience playing in neutral venues due to geopolitical circumstances, which could work in their favor psychologically.
Looking at the Asian handicap options, I find the +0.5 on Maccabi Tel Aviv at 1.526 particularly appealing. This provides coverage for both a draw and an outright victory. Given Maccabi's defensive resilience and Zagreb's potential travel fatigue (despite good form), I can see this match being very tight. The +0.5 handicap means we only need Maccabi to avoid defeat for the bet to win, which aligns perfectly with their recent pattern of results.
The +0.25 handicap at 1.684 offers better value but carries more risk with a half-loss scenario if the match ends in a draw. However, considering Maccabi's unbeaten run and Zagreb's occasional vulnerability (their only loss came against modest Gorica), I believe the Israeli side has more than a 37% chance of avoiding defeat as my analysis suggests.
The most conservative approach would be the +0.75 at 1.37, but the +0.5 offers the optimal balance between security and value. Maccabi's defensive organization, combined with Zagreb's missing pieces and the neutral venue, creates conditions where the underdog could easily secure at least a draw.
Therefore, after careful consideration of all factors - current form, squad availability, venue conditions, and defensive capabilities - my final pick is Maccabi Tel Aviv +0.5 at 1.526. This handicap provides excellent coverage for Maccabi's defensive strength and their capability to either win or draw this match, while still offering reasonable value compared to the more conservative options.