Prediction for Liverpool vs Manchester United, English football, 19 Oct 2025
The English Premier League delivers a classic showdown as Liverpool host Manchester United at Anfield. While the Reds are clear favorites on home turf, the historic rivalry often produces unexpected results. With key players missing for both sides and United showing signs of improvement, the crucial question emerges: **which side offers better value** in this high-stakes encounter where form often goes out the window?
Based on my analysis of the Liverpool vs Manchester United clash, I'm examining this Premier League encounter with particular interest in the underdog's chances. While Liverpool are clear favorites at home with odds of 1.61 for the straight win, I believe there's a compelling case to be made for Manchester United as the underdog, particularly through the Asian handicap market.
Looking at the team news, I see several factors that could work in Manchester United's favor. Liverpool will be missing their crucial goalkeeper Alisson due to injury, which creates a significant vulnerability in their defense. Additionally, key attacker Chiesa is doubtful, and the important summer signing Wirtz is mentioned as "struggling to convince." These absences and form issues could disrupt Liverpool's usual fluidity at Anfield.
For Manchester United, there's positive news with the return of Casemiro from suspension, which will solidify their midfield, and Amad Diallo is back in the squad. Their new attacking signings Mbeumo and Sesko are starting to gel, with Sesko already opening his account for the club. While they have defensive absences in Mazraoui and Martinez, the return of Casemiro provides crucial protection.
Historically, this fixture has been closer than the current odds suggest. In the last 10 meetings, Liverpool have won 5, but there have been 3 draws and 2 wins for Manchester United. This indicates that United are certainly capable of getting a result, especially in what is always a passionate derby match.
The Asian handicap market reveals some very interesting opportunities. The straight Manchester United +0.5 handicap offers odds of 2.24, which I find quite attractive. This bet would win if Manchester United win or draw the match - essentially giving us coverage against both a United victory and a draw scenario.
Looking at the Over/Under market, the odds are nearly even for Over 3.25 at 1.96 and Under 3.25 at 1.88, suggesting the bookmakers aren't expecting a goal fest. This supports my opinion that Manchester United could keep this match competitive and potentially low-scoring.
Given the circumstances, I believe the most valuable Asian handicap play is Manchester United +0.5 at 2.24. This handicap provides excellent coverage - we win our bet if Manchester United manage to get any result from the match. Considering Liverpool's injury concerns, particularly the absence of their first-choice goalkeeper, and United's returning players, I can see this being a tight, competitive match where United could easily secure at least a point. The +0.5 handicap gives us insurance against the draw while still offering strong odds for the outright underdog victory.