Prediction for Faroe Islands vs Montenegro, FIFA World Cup Qualifiers - UEFA, 09 Oct 2025
On paper, Montenegro are the clear favorites against the Faroe Islands. But with both teams locked on six points and the visitors missing key attackers while mired in a scoring drought, does that favorite status hold true? Is the real value actually on the resilient home underdog to defy the odds once more? Which side truly offers the better betting proposition in this crucial World Cup qualifier?
Based on my analysis of the Faroe Islands vs. Montenegro World Cup qualifier, I believe there is a compelling case for the Faroe Islands to at least avoid defeat, making them a valuable underdog pick. While Montenegro is the favorite on paper, a deeper look reveals several factors that significantly level the playing field and give the home side a genuine chance.
Firstly, the context is crucial. Both nations are on equal points in the group. The narrative that Montenegro is vastly superior is undermined by their identical records. This isn't a case of a top team facing a minnow; it's two mid-table teams in this specific group fighting for a result that could define their campaign. The pressure is arguably greater on Montenegro, who are expected to win and have shown defensive frailty by conceding nine goals in five matches. Their recent form is a major concern, having lost their last three games without scoring, including a heavy 4-0 defeat to Croatia. This suggests a team low on confidence and struggling for offensive cohesion.
This leads to my second point: Montenegro's significant missing personnel. My opinion highlights the absence of key attacking players, most notably the experienced striker Stevan Jovetic. Losing a player of his caliber, who has 37 international goals, is a massive blow to their creativity and finishing. This absence perfectly aligns with their recent scoring drought. While they still have some quality, the lack of a proven goal-scorer against a disciplined defense is a critical weakness to exploit.
This brings me to the Faroe Islands' strengths. They have been remarkably resilient. Their losses to the Czech Republic (2-1) and Croatia (0-1) were by narrow margins, proving they are difficult to break down and do not get blown away by superior opposition. They are organized, defensively sound, and play with immense pride at home. Furthermore, the rise of clubs like Klaksvik in European competitions has provided several of their key players with valuable experience against higher-level opponents. This is no longer a team of pure amateurs; they are tactically aware and capable of executing a game plan to frustrate their opponents.
Given this setup, I am not convinced Montenegro possesses the firepower or current form to easily overcome a +0.75 handicap. The best Asian Handicap value, in my opinion, lies with the Faroe Islands. This bet provides a strong safety net. If the Faroe Islands manage a draw or a shock victory, the bet wins in full. Even if they suffer a narrow one-goal defeat, the bet is split, with half the stake refunded and the other half considered a loss. Given Montenegro's inability to score recently and their propensity for close, low-scoring games, a victory by more than a single goal seems unlikely. This handicap offers fantastic value by capitalizing on the Faroes' defensive stability and Montenegro's attacking deficiencies. Therefore, my clear conclusion is to support the underdog with the security of the Faroe Islands +0.75 Asian Handicap at odds of 1.546.