Prediction for Athletic Bilbao vs Mallorca, Spanish football, 04 Oct 2025
Athletic Bilbao hosts Mallorca in a La Liga clash that presents a classic dilemma. The hosts are clear favorites on paper, but are mired in a deep crisis of confidence with a six-match winless streak. Mallorca, buoyed by their first win last weekend, arrive as massive underdogs with zero pressure. With Bilbao's form so fragile, does the real value lie in backing the favored hosts to finally break their slump, or in the resilient visitors to cover a generous handicap on the road?
Based on the data and my analysis, I have a strong feeling that Athletic Bilbao is the clear favorite to win this match. The odds reflect this, with a home win priced at 1.53 and Mallorca's victory at a distant 7.08. My opinion, while pointing out Bilbao's recent poor form, still acknowledges their status as the likely winner.
However, my role is to argue for the underdog and find value where others might not see it. So, why could Mallorca, the massive underdog, win or at least cover a significant Asian handicap?
The primary argument hinges entirely on Athletic Bilbao's profound crisis of confidence. My analysis identifies a six-match winless streak across all competitions, including four defeats. This isn't just a minor dip in form; it's a full-blown slump affecting their performances both domestically and in the Champions League. A team in this mental state, even at home in a famous stadium like San Mamés, is vulnerable. The pressure to break this negative cycle can be paralyzing, leading to nervous, error-prone performances.
Mallorca, on the other hand, arrives with minimal pressure. Sitting 18th, any point snatched from a trip to Bilbao would be a fantastic result. Their morale should have received a massive boost from their first win of the season last weekend against Alavés. The winning goal scorer, Asano, is a doubt, but the mere fact of having secured that victory is crucial. They are a team built to be resilient and defensive, ideal for frustrating a side struggling to create and score. They have been competitive in defeats, losing 2-1 to Real Madrid and 3-2 to Espanyol, suggesting they can score and aren't simply rolled over by superior opponents.
Looking at the Asian Handicap options for Mallorca, the key is to find a line that acknowledges Bilbao's favoritism but also prices in their current vulnerabilities.
The most compelling value lies in taking Mallorca with a +1.0 goal handicap at odds of 1.95. This bet wins if Mallorca wins or draws the match outright. It also wins if they lose by exactly one goal, meaning we get our stake back. We only lose the bet if Mallorca loses by two or more goals.
Given the evidence, a heavy defeat for Mallorca seems unlikely. Bilbao's attack is blunted by injuries and a lack of confidence. Their recent matches have been low-scoring affairs, with three of their last four defeats being by a single goal. Mallorca's own victory was 1-0, and their style will be to keep things tight and compact, looking to hit on the break or from a set-piece.
Therefore, my conclusion is that the best Asian Handicap to take for the underdog is Mallorca +1.0 at 1.95. This line offers excellent insurance against a narrow, predictable Bilbao win fueled more by obligation than inspiration, while still providing a winning payout if Mallorca's plan to frustrate works perfectly.