Prediction for Atalanta BC vs Como, Italian Soccer, 04 Oct 2025
A classic Serie A encounter pits an Atalanta side fatigued from European exploits against an ambitious, in-form Como. The hosts are favorites, but injuries and potential fatigue cloud their prospects. Meanwhile, the visitors have already toppled giants like Fiorentina this season. With the odds heavily favoring Atalanta, the crucial question emerges: does the real value lie with the underestimated underdog capable of springing a surprise at the Gewiss Stadium?
Based on my analysis of the Serie A match between Atalanta and Como, I believe there is a compelling case for the underdog, Como, to at least secure a draw, if not pull off a surprise victory. While Atalanta is the clear favorite on paper and at home, several factors converge to create a scenario where a bet on Como offers significant value.
The primary reason I'm leaning towards Como is the timing and context of this match for Atalanta. They are coming off a midweek Champions League fixture where they secured a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Club Brugge. While a win is positive, European matches are physically and mentally draining. This is Atalanta's first season under new manager Ivan Juric after the long and successful reign of Gian Piero Gasperini, and the squad might still be adapting to his methods. The fatigue from a high-intensity European game could lead to a drop in performance levels, creating a classic "after Europe" letdown scenario in the league.
Furthermore, Atalanta's injury list is a major concern. They are missing key defensive pillars in Kolasinac, Scalvini, and Hien, which severely compromises their defensive solidity. Important attackers like De Ketelaere and Scamacca are also absent. While players like Lookman and Krstovic are capable, the overall squad depth is being tested. A weakened defense is precisely what a confident Como attack can exploit.
On the other side, Como, under the ambitious project led by Cesc Fabregas, has been impressive. They sit just one point behind Atalanta in the table and have already shown they can win on the road against strong opposition, evidenced by their victory over Fiorentina. Their only loss this season was a narrow 1-0 defeat to Bologna. They are organized, motivated, and play without the heavy pressure that Atalanta carries. The suspension of their manager Fabregas is a negative, but it might also galvanize the team to put in a performance for him.
While they have their own absentees (Van der Brempt, Diao, Sergi Roberto), they possess a genuine match-winner in Nico Paz. The Argentine international has been in superb form with 3 goals and 3 assists already this season. He is exactly the type of creative talent who can unlock an Atalanta defense that is both fatigued and patched-up.
Looking at the Asian Handicap market, the most appealing option for the underdog is Como +0.5. This handicap provides a safety net. For this bet to win fully, Como only needs to avoid defeat - a draw is sufficient. Given the factors at play - Atalanta's potential fatigue, their injury crisis, and Como's proven resilience and attacking threat - a draw is a very likely outcome. This handicap offers excellent value, effectively giving us two results (Como win or draw) for a near-even money price, which I find to be a mispricing given the context. A -0.5 handicap on Como is too aggressive, but +0.5 perfectly captures the realistic possibility of them getting a result without requiring them to outright win.
My final pick is Como +0.5 at odds of 1.917.